2 summers left

it's not all doom & gloom, i promise.

okay, don’t freak out.

but i’ve come to an unnerving realization.

there’s a real possibility we have just 2 summers left.

i won’t try to convince you of it or explain how it’ll go down—but if you’d like to fall down that rabbit hole, these will get you started: AI 2027¹ and mo gawdat interview²

there’s this thing called p(doom)

amongst techbros it’s shorthand for “probability of doom” — basically the odds we develop advanced AI and it goes really, really bad.

here’s what some leading minds³ think:

• elon musk: 10-20%

• daniel kokotajlo (early hire at openAI): 70%

• marc andresseen swears it’s 0%. but i’m not about to bet my life on that chucklefuck.

for the sake of this essay, let’s take a conservative estimate of 1%.

..tiny odds when playing the lotto.

but if i tell you there's a 1 in 100 chance the flight you're about to board is going to go all boeing supermax on you — those same odds feel very different.

the truth is we’re notoriously bad at understanding probabilities.

i studied them in college (econ major) and honestly, i still don’t understand them.

but all this probability talk aside, one thing is 100% certain — there will come a day when you have just 2 summers left.

the only uncertainty is when.

the last time principle

this floored me the first time i heard it.

on a quiet morning, i queued up what was supposed to be a relaxing meditation with sam harris. then he drops this on me:

“there will be a last time for everything.”

a last time you…

• hug your mom

• sleep in your childhood bedroom

• stay up till 3am laughing with your best friend

yet none of these final moments announce themselves.

they pass quietly, unnoticed. but looking back, you'd trade anything for one more.

reminding yourself “this might be the last time i do this” doesn’t have to be grim.

sometimes it's the only thing that cuts through the noise, allowing you to savor your morning cup of joe (might be your last) instead of mindlessly gulping it down mid-doom-scroll.

nostalgia’s dirty little secret

we never recognize the good times while we’re in them.

it’ll come as no surprise to anyone who reads joy arb that this is what my childhood bedroom looks like. “these are the good ol’ days” — oil pen on gaffer tape

nostalgia is a slippery lil bastard that only allows us to enjoy the moment once it’s firmly in the rearview mirror and we have the certainty of knowing that things turned out okay.

nostalgia = memory - anxiety.

someday you’ll look back on today and wish you enjoyed this moment more.

these are indeed the good ol’ days.

here’s where things get lighter

you’ve been handed a hypothetical deadline — 2 summers.

that sense of existential dread you’re feeling?

it’s an opportunity for existential clarity.

deadlines clarify, not constrain.

they bring a sense of urgency.

& urgency reveals your true priorities.

a permission slip to drop the trivial, invest in meaning, and get living before life proves to you it’s too short.

as oliver burkeman illustrated in his book, four thousand weeks

the average human lifespan is absurdly, terrifyingly short (four thousand weeks). but that’s not a reason to despair — it’s a reason to choose more intentionally.

finitude is not a flaw, but a feature.

what makes today precious is the very fact that you can’t get it back.

living like it’s your last week

is pretty terrible advice.

you’d crash out — maxxing your credit cards and burning bridges.

but living like you have 2 summers left?

that’s the sweet spot.

enough time to work on something meaningful, repair relationships, and experience life’s joys.

which leads us to…

the most important moment of your life — the next 2 seconds.

not 2 hours from now when you sit at dinner with friends.

not 2 years ago on that trip with your college buddies.

but the next 2 seconds.

don’t look backwards & don’t look forward too much either. just 2 seconds ahead. that’s the sweet spot.

i can already hear the hecklers:

wait, but shouldn’t you just be focused on the present?

i hear you, except my brain doesn’t work that way.

tell me to "be present" and my mind splits into three parts: one trying to be present, one analyzing if i'm present enough, one planning dinner.

so instead i focus on enjoying the next 2 seconds.

one, two.

far enough ahead that my brain thinks we’re being proactive, but soon enough that there’s not a moment to overthink.

so here we are

with 2 summers (possibly) left on the clock.

time to get ruthless.

not about what you're going to do with them — but what you're going to stop doing.

ask yourself: if i knew i had 2 summers left, would i spend another minute worrying about ___[insert trivial bullshit]___?

2 summers left

maybe it'll be AI.

maybe it'll be a rogue vending machine exacting its revenge on you for trying to shake loose that kit-kat bar you paid for.

the cause doesn't matter — it's the clarity that counts.

do less, but do it better.

& just try to enjoy the next 2 seconds.

-t

1. AI 2027 — the most well-researched scenario of a “what if” for AI

2. mo gawdat on tom bilyeu — caveat: tom bilyeu is an absolute blowhard, so take this with a grain of salt, but mo’s non-US-centric take is one worth considering.

3. list of p(doom) estimates