2025 FORECAST: pt.1

friction as status, the rat boy phenomenon, and the new luxury pyramid.

Jan 23, 2025

*here’s last year’s report if you’re curious.*

a note on formatting: under each category, you’ll find the top 3 trends. in the appendix you’ll find the odds and ends that didn’t make it. let’s dive in.

I. CULTURE

1. gatekeeping is back

tiktok clout chasers ruined our fav hidden gems and everyone started dressing as dupes of their fav celeb.

we crave the thrill of discovery—the kind that requires effort and feels earned. the harder we work for something, the more we value it (see: IKEA effect).

prediction: a boom in private communities (discord, slack, whatsapp), while cozy web activity—especially within paywalled spaces—gains even more traction.

2. friction as status

scarcity is increasingly scarce. friction adds a level of intentionality, but more importantly, can be leveraged for status.

much like having a tan communicates that you’re wealthy enough to lounge about in the sun doing nothing, voluntarily adding friction to your life signals the same.

predictions: making your own yogurt = big flex in 2025.

3. the nostalgia to tradwives pipeline

our nostalgia for “simpler times” is a natural reaction to uncertainty. we’ve seen it before: in the 1980s, cold war anxieties sparked an obsession with the 1950s, romanticizing an idealized past as an escape from present fears.

this observation from

Lydia Keating

nails it:

nostalgia is just a form of self-manipulation. all nostalgia is, is the memory of something without the anxiety you experienced while you lived that memory.
nostalgia = memory - anxiety.

for some, that’s a return to traditional values and aesthetics — roleplaying stability. even david beckham has leaned into this, transforming himself into a quasi-trad-wife influencer with his country farm and rustic pursuits.

predictions:

revival of traditional crafts and the institutions that teach them. example: john c. folk school (iykyk).
- got my eyes on beekeeping and crocheting.
see appendix section: the og influencer returns.
homesteading content boom (books, shows, etc).
tractor supply co stock continues to rip.

II. MEDIA

1. offline chic

busted old iphones as subtle status symbols: communicates—i have the luxury of not needing to be shackled to my phone.

more predictions:

no-phone zones as premium spaces: more clubs, cafes and events banning phones to foster presence. the urban equivalent of being “off the grid” during a hike.
human touch as a luxury: from artisanal goods to personalized recommendations, anything made or curated by hand will reign supreme.
- see: popularity of perfectly imperfect and substack recommendations.
the best tech will feel invisible. tools that recede into the background while enhancing real life. example: partiful’s use of SMS rather than forcing another app install on you.
employers start gifting BRICK devices to new employees… and they actually use them.

2. endearingly unhinged

we’re hungry for unhingedness. or authenticity, whatever you want to call it.

the 2024 “podcast election” highlighted our loneliness and the parasocial relationships that fill the void.

more than 1 in 10 americans today have no close friends.1
for many, joe rogan isn’t just a podcaster. he’s a best friend. there by their side during their most intimate moments. podcasts like his are “an on-demand loneliness killing service” -
One Thing

being a lil unhinged (read: taking creative risks) is the fastest way to signal that your comms are not being directed by a committee (see: harris campaign), nor is it some AI-generated slop. in other words, it feels real.

3. the substack surge

being on substack rn (notes especially) feels a bit like being early to tiktok. bullish on the platform. here’s why:

“rely on nothing you can’t take with you” - the new rules of media via

One Thing

after cold hard cash, an email address is the most valuable thing you can collect on the internet. burned by the algo, creators are wisening up to this. enter: substack, the most frictionless way to collect emails.

it’s relatively nascent

recently i was at a happy hour with a bunch of kids who work at vayner media. 4 out of 5 i spoke with didn’t know what substack was. gary tf you doing?

private communities are exploding

substack naturally lends itself to creating a private community amongst your readership.

signal:

Blackbird Spyplane

’s global travel intel chatroom and

Feed Me

’s paywalled subscriber chats.

prediction: substack achieves brandonym status—newsletters are now just ‘substacks,’ no matter the platform.

III. FASHION

1. heirlooms

durability is the new decadence. heirlooms are in. fast fashion is firmly out.

durability has become a coveted luxury as we learn to value the imperfections, character, and authenticity that come with age. patina as proof of a life well-lived.

signal: the popularity of estate sales, capsule wardrobes, and the growing momentum around “buy it for life” products.

related: the japanese concept of kintsugi—repairing broken pottery by mending cracks with gold, silver, or platinum, making them a feature, not a flaw.

2. the end of trends

with the explosion of micro-trends, monolithic trends have become a thing of the past.

this is freeing. you can pick & choose which styles to adopt, blending eras, and no one can trend-check you. as far as they know, you’re on trend, you’re just on some shit they don’t know about.

3. swagged out gramps

aging is cool. or at least the by-products of it are: authenticity and character.

this builds upon the heirloom trend — it’s about the confidence that comes with having been around the block. the youths can feel it:

part of why [older fashion icons] feel so reassuring is that, like all cool older people, they seem comfortably past all that, as though they've already seen the trends, chased the goods and graduated into freedom.” as carina chocano observes — via idle gaze

signal: loewe campaigns, coastal grandmother, and grandpa-core.

IV. WORK

1. the 90-10 rule

AI will usher in an era where we get 90% of the output quality, with 10% of the effort. it’s already close. this is both incredible and frightening. (h/t

Rei Inamoto

)

though we’re not exposed to the true cost of compute (your $20 openAI subscription is heavily subsidized), there will be a time somewhere between now and when money no longer matters, that money will matter more than ever because it’ll translate to more compute, which will translate to dollars.

2. work hard [PERIOD] play hard

WFH blurred the line between work and play to a point where many actually want to go back to the office.

predictions:

normalization of the 4-day workweek (a friend successfully lobbied the 300+ person company she worked for to adopt this).
resurgence of rituals around the workday: ditching WFH, distinct start and stop routines.
hustle porn 2.0 — short sprints of intentional, highly effective AI-aided efforts will be glorified rather than bozos pulling 80-hour work weeks.

3. sorry harvard MBAs

23% of harvard business school MBA grads are still looking for a job 3 months after graduation. woof.

a lot of middle management jobs are going to disappear due to AI, but new careers will emerge (imagine telling someone in 2008 you just signed a $100 million deal to play video games all day long).

new careers:

sleep architects
mental fitness coaches
sabbatical consultants
financial advisors — just these advise you on how best to spend your money.

& of course: craftspeople. eventually, we’ll live in a world of abundance, but human touch will always command a premium.

either you’re pretty into this, or you’re on a hate read rampage. either way, might you consider sharing this w/ a pal who’d enjoy it? or maybe a fellow hater reader. your call.

I. CULTURE:

a. jesus: the og influencer returns

church attendance gunna be way up: a symptom of loneliness, crisis of meaning, and the above trad trends.

“in the day-to-day trenches of adult life, there is actually no such thing as atheism. there is no such thing as not worshiping. everybody worships. the only choice we get is what to worship.”
— david foster wallace

folks gunna worship something. would you prefer it be jesus or huberman?

b. anime:

crazy stat: 42% of gen z watch anime weekly versus 25% who watch the NFL2

c. socialism:

woke is out, socialism is in. will surge amidst AI fears and disruption.

d. the other significant others

traditional markers of stability—house, marriage, religion—feel like relics for many. as traditional milestones drift out of reach, we’ll see the rise of “minorstones” like pet anniversaries as well as new relationship dynamics.

“roommates for life” no longer just a sitcom trope.
platonic best friend as life partner.

more family meals, just with your chosen family.
- aka — more dinner parties (searches for “dinner parties” on pinterest is up 6,000%)

II. MEDIA

a. distro is everything

enabled by AI advancements in code and the AI agents, the “how” has become easier than ever, what’s left is the “why” and distribution – both of which creators are uniquely positioned to address.

signal: sam kolder launching diem — an AI tool to organize & search your content.

prediction: the celeb CPG phenomenon, but software and creators.

b. co-creation

savvy brands will invite their audiences in as co-conspirators in building the brand lore.

signal: loewe tomato meme → turned bag, stone island campaign featuring peggy guo and other notable fans of the brand.

III. FASHION

a. after GORP

GORP in the technical, stand in the shower to test your gear, sense is out. so what’s next?

after GORP, we’re all already in the mountains, but now that everyone’s in the mountains, some of us are looking around a corner and seeing who else is up there. and we see the shepherd: he’s more comfortable. not trying to climb anything. - simon mer via Magasin

prediction: less goretex, more natty fibers.

b. accessories

in 2024 we established our capsules, 2025 will be about the items around the clothes: hats, jewelry, shawls, etc. (h/t

Leandra Medine Cohen

)

c. edgy ralph lauren

preppy, but with a twist.

d. jolie laide

good news for the unconventionally attractive… this is the year of jolie laide (french for “pretty-ugly”).

see: rat boy phenomenon.

e. bottega as the ‘it’ brand for the fellas

IV. MISCELLANEOUS

a. multiple passports

my toxic trait? “letting it slip” that i have dual citizenship on every first date.

more services like citizen x that offer an alternative to the tadz-marriage route & promise to “help you diversify your passport portfolio and secure a safe future for you and your loved ones.” kinda bleak.